viernes, 5 de octubre de 2018

Why billion-dollar biotech deals are often just a mirage

Why billion-dollar biotech deals are often just a mirage

The Readout

On Arrowhead's overinflated ego ... and deal dollars

A tip of the Readout cap to Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals for conjuring a press release announcing a hepatitis B drug licensing deal that is topped with the most hyperbolic biobucks headline we’ve seen in a long time.

Arrowhead’s license and collaboration deal with Janssen, the pharma arm of Johnson & Johnson, is valued at $3.7 billion, Arrowhead crowed Thursday. That’s a lot of dough, except Arrowhead is really getting $250 million from J&J. That’s 7 percent of the deal total. The other 93 percent of the money won’t flow to Arrowhead for years, and then only if its experimental hepatitis B drug (still early in clinical trials) meets best-case scenarios.

Excessive self-promotion is built into Arrowhead’s DNA. Back in 2014, the company’s investor presentation included a slide projecting $1 trillion in potential sales “even under conservative pricing assumptions” for its first-generation hepatitis B drug. That T in trillion is not a typo. The drug later flopped.

After announcing Thursday’s deal with J&J, Arrowhead shares dropped 17 percent. Some folks remember 2014.

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