Study Estimates COVID-19’s Impact on U.S. Medical Costs, Hospital Use

The spread of COVID-19 in the United States could result in hundreds of billions of dollars in direct medical costs, according to a study partially funded by AHRQ and published in Health Affairs. Using data from AHRQ’s Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project and other sources, researchers developed computer models to simulate the financial impact that COVID-19 could have on the U.S. healthcare system. The models also quantified the potential magnitude of the use of resources such as ventilators and hospital beds that would be required under various scenarios. Models based on 20 percent of the population developing symptomatic infections generated a median estimate of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and 1.6 million ventilators used, costing $163.4 billion in direct medical costs. Researchers also estimated that having 80 percent of the population become symptomatically infected could result in a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 249.5 million hospital bed days and 6.5 million ventilators used. In that scenario, direct medical costs could reach $654 billion over the course of the pandemic. Access the abstract.

. 2020 Apr 23;101377hlthaff202000426.

doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00426. Online ahead of print.

The Potential Health Care Costs And Resource Use Associated With COVID-19 In The United States

Sarah M Bartsch 1, Marie C Ferguson 2, James A McKinnell 3, Kelly J O'Shea 4, Patrick T Wedlock 5, Sheryl S Siegmund 6, Bruce Y Lee 7

Affiliations

PMID: 32324428
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00426

Abstract

With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the burden COVID-19 will impose on the United States (U.S.) health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model representing the U.S. population and what can happen to each person who gets infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2). We estimate resource use and direct medical costs per infection and at the national level, with various "attack rates" (infection rates) to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 infection would cost a median of $3,045 in direct medical costs incurred only during the course of the infection. Eighty percent of the U.S. population getting infected could result in a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million ICU admissions, 6.5 million ventilators used, and 249.5 million hospital bed days, costing $654.0 billion in direct costs over the course of the pandemic. If 20% were to become infected, there would be a median of 11.2 million hospitalizations, 62.3 million hospital bed days, and 1.6 million ventilators used, costing $163.4 billion. [Editor's Note: This fast-track Ahead-of-Print article is the accepted version of the peer-reviewed manuscript. The final edited version will appear in an upcoming issue of Health Affairs.].

Keywords: CORONAVIRUS; COVID-19; Cost reduction; Costs and spending; Diseases; Economic burden; Hospital costs; Intensive care units; Prescription drug costs; Value; cost; health policy.