Novartis’s Goldilocks drug price

Yesterday, we asked readers how much Novartis will eventually charge for its next gene therapy, a treatment for spinal muscular atrophy that the company has argued would be “cost-effective” at more than $4 million for a single dose.

About 55 percent believe the final price tag will come in between $1 million and $2 million. Another 26 percent figure it’ll cost less than $1 million, while 19 percent believe it’ll go for more than $2 million.

What’s interesting about Novartis’s situation — and that of gene therapy companies in general — is that the price itself is arguably just as important as whatever payment options come attached to it. Whether $1 million, $2 million, or more, payers will almost certainly balk at the price, so it’ll be on Novartis to propose ways of spreading out, deferring, or risk-adjusting the cost.