Inside STAT: Disease modelers gaze into computers to see future of Covid-19

SARS-COV-2, THE VIRUS THAT CAUSES COVID-19. (COURTESY NIAID-RML)

Much like weather forecasters, those modeling disease outbreaks using mathematical equations are used to a fair amount of uncertainty. The teams working to model the current outbreak of Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, have come up with a wide range of projections for how many cases Wuhan, China, is likely to see. Yet despite the guesswork-like nature of the task, modelers in recent years have gotten better about matching their projections to reality. Seasonal flu predictions offer the clearest example of this improvement: Every year, a dozen labs try to project the extent of a flu season, and have been coming ever closer to accurately forecasting the timing, peak, and short-term intensity of the disease. Read more from STAT’s Sharon Begley here.