Models Estimate Value of Creating Influenza Vaccines That Protect More Individuals

Creating an influenza vaccine that protects a wider range of individuals, through personalization or other means, could significantly reduce flu case volumes, deaths and costs, according to a new AHRQ co-funded study published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases. Flu vaccine effectiveness can vary significantly among individuals, due to differences in immune system response, body types and other factors. The study examined the value of creating vaccines that work on a larger proportion of the population than currently. To determine the cost and health effects of reducing this variability, the authors simulated different flu seasonal patterns and the impact of increasing a vaccine’s efficacy across the population. The models found that even a slight increase in vaccine efficacy (e.g., narrowing the range of efficacy from 0–90 percent to 10–90 percent) could avert more than five million influenza cases, $609.8 million in direct healthcare costs and $10.7 billion in costs of lost productivity annually. Access the abstract.