Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext?utm_campaign=morning_rounds&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=299162334&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8X-Ogo4CnizsRZtEq6r5c1ds1ZgmX9Wd7T0nM9CPe8n8ZzI5G9zF0LY6sidvIUG3hFXAw1dGTu4SxWXI6hxnm8svHizA&utm_content=299162334&utm_source=hs_email Falling fertility rates will change populations on a global scale, paper predicts Taking the very long view, a new analysis of fertility rates around the world predicts a dramatic decline in birth rates and a transformative shift in population patterns by 2100. The Lancet paper estimates that, by 2050, more than three-quarters of countries will see their populations shrink, rising to 97% by century’s end. The report also says births will nearly double in low-income regions from 2021 to 2100, when 1 out of every 2 children on the planet will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. What does this mean? Not too many generations ago, overpopulation was the concern, but now it’s a “demographically divided world” that is feared. That's because middle- and high-income countries with a diminishing workforce could strain health and social systems of an aging population. Countries with younger, faster-growing populations might have fewer resources to cope with economic instability, heat stress from climate change, and limited health systems, as well as less access to contraception and education for women. “The global health community must plan to address these divided sets of demographic challenges worldwide,” the authors write.