Allocating CBO’s Estimates of Federal Medicaid Spending Reductions Across the States: Senate Reconciliation Bill Rhiannon Euhus, Elizabeth Williams, Alice Burns, and Robin Rudowitz Published: Jul 01, 2025

https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/allocating-cbos-estimates-of-federal-medicaid-spending-reductions-across-the-states-senate-reconciliation-bill/?utm_campaign=KFF-This-Week&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9clRk_ExKpBEOih9zxGTjZlkxicfetdpEkFaQf52tIk1okVYQxTKVmlVPdNEY4e9oPoc6nQ9zl7BL5Tffe-SIWX3-jfQ&_hsmi=369724789&utm_content=369724789&utm_source=hs_email Allocating CBO’s Estimates of Federal Medicaid Spending Reductions Across the States: Senate Reconciliation Bill KFF estimates that the Senate reconciliation bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $1 trillion. Federal cuts to states of $1 trillion over 10 years would represent 15% of federal spending on Medicaid over the period (up from 12% in the House-passed reconciliation bill). The spending cuts vary by state; Louisiana and Virginia are the most heavily affected with spending cuts of 21% over the period. This analysis does not predict how states will respond to federal policy changes given the uncertainties.