Is the smallest player in migraine underrated?

Alder Biopharmaceuticals has an injectable drug to prevent migraines, and, in clinical trials, it seems to work pretty well. The problem is that Alder’s treatment is a year away from approval, while the likes of Amgen, Eli Lilly, and Teva are already on the market with similar ones. Alder’s odds of competing don’t look great, which is perhaps why the company’s share price has fallen more than 40 percent since August.

But Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges believes sentiment might have run afoul of reality. Yes, Alder doesn’t have the resources of, say, Lilly. But the fact that pharma is out doing the legwork of developing the migraine market could benefit Alder if and when it wins approval, he argued. And Alder’s product, which can be administered quarterly, could prove more attractive than the competitors that require more frequent dosing, Porges wrote in a note to investors.

All of that conspires to make Alder look like a potential buyout target, according to Porges, who began that note with “Hello, Biogen.” But as of this moment, with Alder at about $11 a share, that opinion doesn't seem particularly popular.