The first test of AbbVie’s post-Humira future is upon us

AbbVie has the enviable privilege of marketing the world’s best-selling drug in the form of Humira, which brought in about $20 billion in revenue last year. But, despite the company’s herculean legal efforts, Humira is likely to face biosimilar competition come 2023. And, in the aftermath of a painful experience in oncology, Wall Street is understandably antsy about how AbbVie plans to grow in a post-Humira world.

Which brings us to this Thursday, which is when the FDA is expected to make a final decision on risankizumab, an injected treatment for psoriasis that AbbVie claims will bring in peak sales of $5 billion a year. Alongside upadacitinib, a rheumatoid arthritis drug that could win approval later this year, risankizumab is key to AbbVie’s future in autoimmune disease, a market it has long dominated thanks to Humira.

Both drugs would enter crowded markets, and analysts’ sales expectations are considerably less rosy than AbbVie’s. But the company believes it can offset Humira’s soon-to-dwindle returns and even exceed its yesteryear performance.

First, AbbVie has to convince the FDA.