A small dip in vaccination rates could lead to large measles outbreaks

A SIMULATION OF MEASLES CASES IF THE VACCINATION RATE IN AUSTIN DROPPED BY 10%. (UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH PUBLIC HEALTH DYNAMICS LABORATORY)

Just a 5% decrease in measles vaccination rates in Texas could spark up to a 4,000% jump in the size of an outbreak, according to a new modeling study. Using vaccination data from Texas schools in 2018, researchers simulated scenarios that would result if vaccination rates were to drop. Depending on the metro area, a 5% dip could lead to anywhere from a 40% to a 4,000% spike in cases. Further analysis found that a 10% vaccination drop in Austin, for instance, could lead to nearly 12,500 cases in a nine-month period. In these simulations, nearly two-thirds of the cases were students whose parents refused vaccinating them, while the other third were those who couldn't get vaccinated for medical reasons.