Science’s Oscar season is upon us

Next week, we’ll learn just who’s getting summoned to Stockholm for a Nobel Prize in medicine, chemistry, and physics, which means now’s the time for guessing, betting, and number-crunching.

As STAT’s Sharon Begley points out, there’s arguably a science to this stuff. Over the past 17 years, David Pendlebury of Clarivate Analytics has made 50 correct predictions by analyzing how often a scientist’s key papers are cited by peers. (Pendlebury hasn't always been correct about the year in which recipients will be honored.)

But it’s an imprecise science. For example, the oft-cited scientists behind big discoveries in cancer and immunology might theoretically be due, but the 2018 Nobels brought honors for immuno-oncology, and history suggests the judges won’t go back to that well so soon.

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