Workforce Projections For Physicians, Nurse Practitioners, And Physician Associates Authors: Monica O’Reilly-Jacob mo2986@cumc.columbia.edu, Lusine Poghosyan, Susan Kelly-Weeder, Sean Clarke, and David Auerbach

https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2025.01747?utm_campaign=july%202026%20issue&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8hgbOuFhR9Yoeg7AzXrlNyjr5vGFhrMzGrD-edssw4cmwx-Ouglg7Q4RacoUuZkFoKHxKC-H_ahnFtfsXJK4qZ7c0pUQ&_hsmi=431087453&utm_source=well%20read Ensuring an adequate supply of clinicians is a critical policy concern. In our forecast, physician supply growth remains consistent with prior forecasts, at 1 percent annually, but the numbers of nurse practitioners and physician associates, respectively, are projected to increase 11 percent and 5.6 percent annually through 2030. The surge in nurse practitioner graduates, especially, has implications for onboarding, team-based care, and policies.