Calculating how to shift the tide on Alzheimer's

The future looks bleak for Alzheimer’s. One figure that’s commonly tossed around: 13.8 million Americans could have the neurodegenerative disease by 2050. But that projection is far from inevitable, as STAT’s Sharon Begley reports.

She asked eight experts on the demographics of Alzheimer’s which interventions, or even unintended changes, might affect the projected prevalence of the disease, by how much, and when. After all, changes made today can change tomorrow. 

For instance, the most impactful intervention — according to a mathematical model from UCLA biostatisticians — is “primary prevention.” Keeping brains healthy so they don’t degenerate would likely help reduce longterm incidence of the disease by significant measure. Meanwhile, patients and their families are clamoring for a drug that might slow or halt the disease — but such “secondary prevention” could results in a far smaller decrease.

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