Regeneron’s ocular future: Either 'solid' or a 'hot mess'

Yesterday, Novartis won FDA approval for a drug that will challenge Regeneron Pharmaceuticals’ blockbuster Eylea. But just how vigorous that challenge will be depends on whom you ask.

Here are some facts: The Novartis drug, Beovu, is now approved to treat age-related macular degeneration, the very indication that turned Eylea into Regeneron’s greatest commercial success to date. With that approval came the disclosure that Beovu led to four times as much eye inflammation as placebo, and that information will be on the drug’s label, a problem Eylea does not have.

To Baird analyst Brian Skorney, that makes the Beovu label look "meh,” with efficacy similar to Eylea but “marginally worse” safety. PiperJaffray analyst Christopher Raymond took things a step further, declaring Novartis’s label “a hot mess,” arguing that the safety issue “renders Beovu as little more than an also-ran.”

On the other hand, SVB Leerink’s Geoffrey Porges called the label “solid” and figures that Beovu will gradually eat into Eylea’s revenue. And Cowen’s Yaron Werber, citing a survey of retinal surgeons, said the majority believe Novartis’s therapy is simply superior to Regeneron’s, which would mean Eylea sales are likely to decline at a much faster rate than other analysts expect.