miércoles, 26 de abril de 2017

Ethiopia’s demographic opportunity | MercatorNet | April 26, 2017 |

Ethiopia’s demographic opportunity

| MercatorNet  | April 26, 2017 |

Ethiopia’s demographic opportunity

Ethiopia’s demographic opportunity

Is also (potentially) a great danger.
Marcus Roberts | Apr 26 2017 | comment 1 

As we have written about many times on this blog, the Chinese government is concerned about its citizens growing old before the country has got wealthy. Its current demographic outlook is for an increasingly elderly population. However, a large reason it and other East Asian nations are so much wealthier than they were 50 years’ ago is that they reaped a “demographic dividend” – a large young population that entered into the workforce and could pay taxes and grow the economy. Some economists and demographers have argued that African nations in the next half century or so will be in a similar position to East Asia 50 years’ ago and could reap a similar dividend.
Ethiopia is one African nation which could be in this position. At the Conversation, Sosina Bezu discusses Ethiopia’s present opportunities and dangers arising from its youth bulge. Although last year and this have seen many millions of Ethiopians suffering from drought, there has been an stunning economic growth in Ethiopia since 2004. Since then, its GDP has grown as an average rate of 10.8% per year while, over the same time, the poverty rate has decline from 39% to 23%. In order to continue this growing prosperity, Ethiopia will need to harness its very large youth population. Currently over 70% of its population is less than 30 years of age. If it can find enough jobs for these young people entering the workforce then this demographic fact will be of great economic benefit, if not, then these large number of young people will be a political (as well as social) disaster. Bezu writes:
“High levels of unemployment among educated young people is a troubling phenomenon. The country’s youth have increasingly higher aspirations and expectations due to the possibilities they see, given the country’s economic growth. They also have high expectations of what they believe they deserve as relatively educated people.
But not only are there no jobs, wages are often not high enough to support high living costs.
This gap between aspirations and economic reality is clearly becoming increasingly frustrating.”
The trouble is that the economy is not producing enough jobs and opportunities for the million young Ethiopians that enter the labour market every year. This is largely due to the agrarian nature of the country: only 80% of Ethiopians live in rural areas. Although making up for less than 50% of the national product, the agricultural sector employs more than 70% of the labour force. Historically those born in rural areas stayed there, but land scarcity has started pushing young people to the cities. Yet there aren’t enough jobs in the cities either, 30% of 20 to 24 years olds in urban areas are unemployed. (Some studies suggest this is as high as 50%).
The hope is that low wage labour opportunities will grow the economy while the increasing number of young people in work will boost demand and investment in the country. But the key is to find job opportunities. Bezu concludes:
"The government should create an enabling environment for the private sector by improving the country’s dismal business environment.
At the same time, it should design effective employment programmes. Its recent effort to increase job opportunities for unemployed young people is a step in the right direction.”
In short, millions of unemployed young people are a terrible disaster economically, socially and politically. Millions of employed young people are a great opportunity. Let’s hope that Ethiopia can integrate its young workforce into work in the years ahead.
- See more at: https://www.mercatornet.com/demography/view/ethiopias-demographic-opportunity/19684#sthash.LN6U7c9B.dpuf


April 26, 2017

"HPV vaccine is cancer prevention". That is the official word from the US government's leading health body, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. Well, the CDC gets a B+ for good will, a C- for accuracy, and a F for truthfulness.  
The vaccine prevents HPV, not cancer. As Carolyn Moynihan argues in today's lead article, "'No' is the best vaccine and there are still people who protect their physical and emotional health in that way." What the CDC knows and should be saying is that promiscuity spreads HPV and makes it more dangerous. So why aren't they campaigning against promiscuity? Your guess is as good as mine. Any suggestions?

Michael Cook 

The truthiness behind the HPV vaccine campaign
By Carolyn Moynihan
Doctors are telling only half the truth about America's most common sexually transmitted disease
Read the full article
Swedish midwife opposed to abortion appeals to European Court of Human Rights
By Michael Cook
Ellinor Grimmark has had to move to Norway to find work
Read the full article
The illogic of famous logicians
By Denyse O'Leary
Millions died while reason took a century-long holiday
Read the full article
Ethiopia’s demographic opportunity
By Marcus Roberts
Is also (potentially) a great danger.
Read the full article
If kids can’t cross streets safely, why do we offer them sex changes?
By Michael Cook
Decisions about sexuality require maturity that children do not have
Read the full article
Art comes to life in this picture book
By Jon Dykstra
A fun and educational book for youngsters ages 5-8
Read the full article
Euthanasia is a ‘sideshow’ in end-of-life care, says leading US bioethicist
By Paul Russell
Ezekiel Emanuel says that pain is not the the reason people ask doctors to end their lives
Read the full article
And then there were two
By Ronnie Smith
The traditional parties have been abandoned by voters in this year's presidential election in France
Read the full article
Guardians of the Galaxy, Volume 2: a scientist’s review
By Michael Milford
Not exactly textbook perfect, but loads of fun
Read the full article
Canada’s long-awaited polygamy trial begins today
By Michael Cook
Will the prosecution succeed after decades of ignoring the problem?
Read the full article

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Ethiopia’s demographic opportunity

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