Study Estimates Costs of Zika Virus Epidemic in the United States

A Zika virus outbreak that infects 2 percent of the population of six southern states will cost approximately $2 billion in medical costs, lost productivity and other related costs, according to a new study partially funded by AHRQ. The article in the journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases examined the potential cost of various scenarios in the six states at the greatest risk of suffering a Zika epidemic — Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. Researchers forecast how overall direct medical costs, the proportion of direct medical costs expected to be covered by Medicaid, costs of lost productivity and total costs to society could vary with different virus attack rates and other factors. The study also identified the primary determinants of infection-related costs. This information could help guide future data collection and infection control efforts. Access the abstract.

2017 Apr 27;11(4):e0005531. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005531. eCollection 2017 Apr.

The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States.

Lee BY1, Alfaro-Murillo JA2, Parpia AS2, Asti L1, Wedlock PT1, Hotez PJ3, Galvani AP2.

Author information

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

As the Zika virus epidemic continues to spread internationally, countries such as the United States must determine how much to invest in prevention, control, and response. Fundamental to these decisions is quantifying the potential economic burden of Zika under different scenarios.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS:

To inform such decision making, our team developed a computational model to forecast the potential economic burden of Zika across six states in the US (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas) which are at greatest risk of Zika emergence, under a wide range of attack rates, scenarios and circumstances. In order to accommodate a wide range of possibilities, different scenarios explored the effects of varying the attack rate from 0.01% to 10%. Across the six states, an attack rate of 0.01% is estimated to cost $183.4 million to society ($117.1 million in direct medical costs and $66.3 million in productivity losses), 0.025% would result in $198.6 million ($119.4 million and $79.2 million), 0.10% would result in $274.6 million ($130.8 million and $143.8 million) and 1% would result in $1.2 billion ($268.0 million and $919.2 million).

CONCLUSIONS:

Our model and study show how direct medical costs, Medicaid costs, productivity losses, and total costs to society may vary with different attack rates across the six states and the circumstances at which they may exceed certain thresholds (e.g., Zika prevention and control funding allocations that are being debated by the US government). A Zika attack rate of 0.3% across the six states at greatest risk of Zika infection, would result in total costs that exceed $0.5 billion, an attack rate of 1% would exceed $1 billion, and an attack rate of 2% would exceed $2 billion.