domingo, 23 de octubre de 2016

BioEdge: No Chinese baby boom after new two-child policy

BioEdge: No Chinese baby boom after new two-child policy

Bioedge

No Chinese baby boom after new two-child policy
     


China's recently introduced universal two-child policy is predicted to have a relatively small effect on population growth, with a likely peak of 1.45 billion in 2029, compared to 1.4 billion in 2023 if the one-child policy had continued, according to academics writing in The Lancet. By 2050, the population is predicted to be 1.42 billion under the two-child policy, compared to 1.27 billion under the one-child policy.

The authors say that two-child policy will likely to lead to a reduction in the number of abortions of unapproved pregnancies, virtual elimination of the problem of unregistered children, and a more balanced sex ratio, but warn that the effect on the shrinking workforce and rapid population ageing may not be felt for two decades. As a result, they say that policies, including increasing the retirement age, strengthening the state pension system, and encouraging three generation living should be strongly considered.

China's one-child policy was introduced in 1979 to curb population growth and promote economic development. Difficult to implement in rural areas, from 1984 rural couples were allowed a second child if their first child was a girl (the so-called 1.5 child policy). Fertility rates dropped from an estimated 5.9 births per woman in 1970 to between 1.5 and 1.7 in the late 1990s. Amid fears that universally lifting the one-child policy would lead to a baby boom, the Chinese government has introduced gradual changes - for instance, by allowing parents who were only-children to have two children. But, by May 2015, only 1.45 million (13.2%) of 11 million eligible couples applied for permission to have a second child. In October 2015, the two-child policy was introduced country-wide.

Although ageing populations are increasing worldwide, the one-child policy has rapidly accelerated the process in China. Other negative effects of the one-child policy include the highly skewed sex ratio, with a predicted excess of 30 million unmarriageable men by 2020 under current trends, and the decline in the working age population which could threaten economic growth.
Bioedge

Bioedge

We goofed and we're eating humble pie. Wednesday, October 19, was World Bioethics Day. I'm afraid that it passed unnoticed at BioEdge, perhaps because every day is World Bioethics Day here. But was also the first time it was celebrated, so we shall be better prepared next year.
However, it appears that very few people were popping champagne bottles in the UK and US even though they must have the larges number of bioethicists. No events were planned in the United Kingdom, only one in the US, and 29 in India. World-wide, there were events in 55 countries, most on the theme of the Day, "human dignity and human rights". 


Michael Cook
Editor
BioEdge



This week in BioEdge

by Xavier Symons | Oct 22, 2016
Japan researchers have created gametes from the skin cells of mice.

by Xavier Symons | Oct 22, 2016
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have traded blows over abortion, in what was perhaps the clearest statement yet of each candidate’s position.

by Michael Cook | Oct 22, 2016
More unexpected consequences

by Michael Cook | Oct 22, 2016
UK society changes its name

by Michael Cook | Oct 22, 2016
But doctors say that it is unethical to cooperate

by Michael Cook | Oct 22, 2016
Fears of abortion tourism from Denmark and Sweden

by Michael Cook | Oct 22, 2016
Desperate couples try to defray expensive treatment costs

by Michael Cook | Oct 22, 2016
Birth rate stays stubbornly low

by Xavier Symons | Oct 22, 2016
The European Medicines Agency (EMA) will now publish all clinical trials data.

by Xavier Symons | Oct 22, 2016
Miriam Zoll says that the technology has not worked for 20 million women


BioEdge
Suite 12A, Level 2 | 5 George St | North Strathfield NSW 2137 | Australia
Phone: +61 2 8005 8605
Mobile: 0422-691-615
New Media Foundation | Level 2, 5 George St | North Strathfield NSW 2137 | AUSTRALIA | +61 2 8005 8605