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Meeting the Healthy People 2020 Objectives to Reduce Cancer Mortality

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Meeting the Healthy People 2020 Objectives to Reduce Cancer Mortality





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Meeting the Healthy People 2020 Objectives to Reduce Cancer Mortality

ORIGINAL RESEARCH — Volume 12 — July 2, 2015

Hannah K. Weir, PhD; Trevor D. Thompson, BS; Ashwini Soman, MBBS, MPH; Bjorn Møller, PhD; Steven Leadbetter, MS; Mary C. White, ScD

Suggested citation for this article: Weir HK, Thompson TD, Soman A, Møller B, Leadbetter S, White MC. Meeting the Healthy People 2020 Objectives to Reduce Cancer Mortality. Prev Chronic Dis 2015;12:140482. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5888/pcd12.140482.
PEER REVIEWED

Abstract

Introduction
Healthy People 2020 (HP2020) calls for a 10% to 15% reduction in death rates from 2007 to 2020 for selected cancers. Trends in death rates can be used to predict progress toward meeting HP2020 targets.
Methods
We used mortality data from 1975 through 2009 and population estimates and projections to predict deaths for all cancers and the top 23 cancers among men and women by race. We apportioned changes in deaths from population risk and population growth and aging.
Results
From 1975 to 2009, the number of cancer deaths increased among white and black Americans primarily because of an aging white population and a growing black population. Overall, age-standardized cancer death rates (risk) declined in all groups. From 2007 to 2020, rates are predicted to continue to decrease while counts of deaths are predicted to increase among men (15%) and stabilize among women (increase <10%). Declining death rates are predicted to meet HP2020 targets for cancers of the female breast, lung and bronchus, cervix and uterus, colon and rectum, oral cavity and pharynx, and prostate, but not for melanoma.
Conclusion
Cancer deaths among women overall are predicted to increase by less than 10%, because of, in part, declines in breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer deaths among white women. Increased efforts to promote cancer prevention and improve survival are needed to counter the impact of a growing and aging population on the cancer burden and to meet melanoma target death rates.




Trends in deaths from all cancers combined attributed to population risk (including diagnostic and treatment practices), growth, and aging (1975–2009), by sex and race (white, black).
Figure 2. Trends in observed and predicted age-adjusted death rates for all sites combined and for the 7 site-specific cancers included in the Healthy People 2020 cancer mortality objectives by sex and race, 1975–2020. [A tabular version of this figure is also available.]

Acknowledgments

There are no financial disclosures from any of the authors. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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Author Information

Corresponding Author: Hannah K. Weir, PhD, Epidemiology and Applied Research Branch, Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy, Mailstop F76, Atlanta, GA 30341. Telephone: 770-488-3006. Email: hbw4@cdc.gov.
Author Affiliations: Trevor D. Thompson, Steven Leadbetter, Mary C. White, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; Ashwini Soman, Northrop Grumman Corporation, Atlanta, Georgia; Bjorn Møller, Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway.
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